[review]

Those phenomenons associated with recessions, crunches and bubbles

Classens, Kose and Terrones (2008) document the evidence that recessions associated with crunches and housing burst trend to be deeper and longer. The authors employ evidence from 21 OECD countries in the period from 1960 to 2007. The average duration of a recession is 3.8 quarters while the average duration of the severe ones can be 4.8 quarters. Regarding the GDP growth, the average effect of a recession is -2 per cents, while the severe ones can be -5.2 per cents.

[review]

Analysis for operational purpose: when there are data limitation

Gottschalk, Kalonji and Miyajima (2008) present a wonderful estimation on the inflation in 2008-2010 by limited data from Sierra Leone. The main idea in the paper is to examine the determinants of inflation in the region and then use a structural vector autoregression (VAR) to project the unknown part.

The base of this projection is economic theory. In theory, inflation is found to increase with higher oil price, higher money supply, and nominal exchange rate depreciation. This paper emplys the historical decomposition approach